Election Tracker
Our own ratings, kept by hand. No model, no forecast percentage, no needle. Where we think a race stands, and what changed our mind.
Ratings go up as the field settles closer to November.
| Rating | What it means |
|---|---|
| Safe | Not competitive. We would be surprised by a single-digit margin. |
| Likely | One side is clearly ahead, but the race is being contested in earnest. |
| Lean | A real advantage that a bad month could erase. |
| Toss-up | We genuinely do not know. |
| Race | Rating | Note |
|---|---|---|
| No races rated yet | — | — |
| Race | Rating | Note |
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| No races rated yet | — | — |
| Race | Rating | Note |
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| No races rated yet | — | — |